The life expectancy of those who died | Code Green - E's blog
According to a UN report quoted in Haaretz, the world's average life expectancy increased by 60 years to 21 years: from 47 to 1950 to 1955 to 68 by 2005-2010. Differential rise: from 40 to 70 or so in Asia (China and India), from 40 to 60 or so poorest countries in the world, and from - 67 to - 80 or so in the wealthiest countries.
I wonder what is the "average life expectancy" canada census reported her findings, and I appreciate Gil party means that the average of the Dead "(There is another possibility - that the average life expectancy refers to a person born in this year, but have no idea how one can estimate the figure). Assuming I'm right, the life expectancy of those who live higher. If you are 90, for example, then obviously your life expectancy is higher, even if you are young it is likely your life expectancy higher than someone who was young and at your age before this and decades.
I was impressed by the data, it seems that life expectancy (= average age of death) converges (in half a century to a century) to the age 90-100, this is assuming no twists: medical canada census breakthroughs (Bulk drug for cancer, for example) on the one hand, disasters and epidemics on the other.
If the age of death average would indeed be 100 (for comparison, in 1800 there were persons 30 years on average), and because the distribution of age of death is a left-tail (always canada census have more babies die from people aged 200 ...), then this means that more than half of the people cross the age 100. Me is amazing.
And here are some more statistics from UN report on aging: the median age in the world today is the 28th (Japan 44, Nigeria 15, Israel 29.5, 17.3 in Gaza and Judea and Samaria.) At the median age in 2050 is expected to grow to 38 . ratio of people of working age (15-65), the number of elders "(+65) was 12 - in 1950, dropped to nine today, canada census and is expected to drop to 4! On - 2050. Women live on average and as a Today that proportion of women aged 80 + is 63%, and the proportion of women aged +100 is 81%.
Ethan, the life expectancy is actually a measure of the average population does not exist. Take the mortality rates of any population in a given year, and make the following mental exercise: Suppose a person (or population) will live his life under the influence of these mortality rates, what probability to reach a certain age. It's obviously fake because there is no index of such a person exists, that we mix here mortality rates of infants born in 2010 with the mortality rates of those aged 80 living in 2010 (but actually born in 1930 and exposed accustomed to "living and environmental conditions are very different). Simplest interpretation is to see the life expectancy at age of death Zafona "a person born today, assuming mortality (any age group) of the current period will remain constant in the future.
There are several reasons to use this index, although he stated refers to an imaginary population: 1. It solves the problem of lack of information - to know really what is the average age of death for people born in the year 2010, we will have to wait for everyone to die and calculate for them the average. Instead of waiting for about 100 years, canada census we compress the mortality rates of people from different age groups in one year. Two. Although this index of "false" is an important comparative dimension grants, both between countries and between different periods in the same country (or population). Three. This way we get rid of bias of the vehicle population. If we calculate the average mortality in the population grows (or as little as Europe) exponentially, certain age groups will have greater weight in weighing. This way the main problem the crude death rate (deaths per thousand inhabitants, approximately) often lower compared to the poorest countries the most developed, because there is much more absorptive young denominator.
Since this metric is not intuitive people tend to mistake his commentary in several ways: 1. This is not a prediction contrary to what is commonly thought. Anyone born this year probably live than the average, because when he reaches the age of 60 he will be subjected to different mortality rates than those of the 60th day (which were born in another canada census time and is exposed to sanitation, nutrition, etc. in their lives). This is a comparative index only and is not intended to predict. Two. Sometimes it is customary to think (mistakenly) that countries canada census where life expectancy at birth is very low (30-40) did not seem old streets. Ie most people die by age 40. This is obviously not true. Since this is an average, low life expectancy in these countries due to infant mortality and high child pulls the average down. In fact, if you survived until the age of five in these countries is very possible your life expectancy after this point has risen! In most populations (current and historical), multi mortality is concentrated at very young ages and older ages. So even if the underdeveloped countries reached the age of 5-10 has a good chance you reach age 50 +. Exceptions are cases of epidemics canada census or disasters that harm middle aged. Example, the AIDS epidemic (highly specific countries in Africa) increases the mortality rates actually aged 20-30.
The real problem is of Actuaries. canada census Them interesting absolute canada census values and relative. They are interested in the expected average lifetime pension policyholders, and try to evaluate it according to various mortality indices. Since they do pension insurance plan to live longer than those who die at the same time, there is an actuarial deficit. Insurance companies have to pay the monthly pension (calculated - while joining pension plan - accumulate savings amount divided canada census your retirement expectancy canada census of those who reached retirement age), for more years.
Eric, longevity only half of the problem when it comes to pensions. The other half is the decline in birth rates and aging populations (World, but faster than in the West). Beyond pensions person secretes himself for future reference (and for most people it is not enough), government support is based on a pay as you go now that we pay allowances generations before us, assuming that future generations will pay the S
According to a UN report quoted in Haaretz, the world's average life expectancy increased by 60 years to 21 years: from 47 to 1950 to 1955 to 68 by 2005-2010. Differential rise: from 40 to 70 or so in Asia (China and India), from 40 to 60 or so poorest countries in the world, and from - 67 to - 80 or so in the wealthiest countries.
I wonder what is the "average life expectancy" canada census reported her findings, and I appreciate Gil party means that the average of the Dead "(There is another possibility - that the average life expectancy refers to a person born in this year, but have no idea how one can estimate the figure). Assuming I'm right, the life expectancy of those who live higher. If you are 90, for example, then obviously your life expectancy is higher, even if you are young it is likely your life expectancy higher than someone who was young and at your age before this and decades.
I was impressed by the data, it seems that life expectancy (= average age of death) converges (in half a century to a century) to the age 90-100, this is assuming no twists: medical canada census breakthroughs (Bulk drug for cancer, for example) on the one hand, disasters and epidemics on the other.
If the age of death average would indeed be 100 (for comparison, in 1800 there were persons 30 years on average), and because the distribution of age of death is a left-tail (always canada census have more babies die from people aged 200 ...), then this means that more than half of the people cross the age 100. Me is amazing.
And here are some more statistics from UN report on aging: the median age in the world today is the 28th (Japan 44, Nigeria 15, Israel 29.5, 17.3 in Gaza and Judea and Samaria.) At the median age in 2050 is expected to grow to 38 . ratio of people of working age (15-65), the number of elders "(+65) was 12 - in 1950, dropped to nine today, canada census and is expected to drop to 4! On - 2050. Women live on average and as a Today that proportion of women aged 80 + is 63%, and the proportion of women aged +100 is 81%.
Ethan, the life expectancy is actually a measure of the average population does not exist. Take the mortality rates of any population in a given year, and make the following mental exercise: Suppose a person (or population) will live his life under the influence of these mortality rates, what probability to reach a certain age. It's obviously fake because there is no index of such a person exists, that we mix here mortality rates of infants born in 2010 with the mortality rates of those aged 80 living in 2010 (but actually born in 1930 and exposed accustomed to "living and environmental conditions are very different). Simplest interpretation is to see the life expectancy at age of death Zafona "a person born today, assuming mortality (any age group) of the current period will remain constant in the future.
There are several reasons to use this index, although he stated refers to an imaginary population: 1. It solves the problem of lack of information - to know really what is the average age of death for people born in the year 2010, we will have to wait for everyone to die and calculate for them the average. Instead of waiting for about 100 years, canada census we compress the mortality rates of people from different age groups in one year. Two. Although this index of "false" is an important comparative dimension grants, both between countries and between different periods in the same country (or population). Three. This way we get rid of bias of the vehicle population. If we calculate the average mortality in the population grows (or as little as Europe) exponentially, certain age groups will have greater weight in weighing. This way the main problem the crude death rate (deaths per thousand inhabitants, approximately) often lower compared to the poorest countries the most developed, because there is much more absorptive young denominator.
Since this metric is not intuitive people tend to mistake his commentary in several ways: 1. This is not a prediction contrary to what is commonly thought. Anyone born this year probably live than the average, because when he reaches the age of 60 he will be subjected to different mortality rates than those of the 60th day (which were born in another canada census time and is exposed to sanitation, nutrition, etc. in their lives). This is a comparative index only and is not intended to predict. Two. Sometimes it is customary to think (mistakenly) that countries canada census where life expectancy at birth is very low (30-40) did not seem old streets. Ie most people die by age 40. This is obviously not true. Since this is an average, low life expectancy in these countries due to infant mortality and high child pulls the average down. In fact, if you survived until the age of five in these countries is very possible your life expectancy after this point has risen! In most populations (current and historical), multi mortality is concentrated at very young ages and older ages. So even if the underdeveloped countries reached the age of 5-10 has a good chance you reach age 50 +. Exceptions are cases of epidemics canada census or disasters that harm middle aged. Example, the AIDS epidemic (highly specific countries in Africa) increases the mortality rates actually aged 20-30.
The real problem is of Actuaries. canada census Them interesting absolute canada census values and relative. They are interested in the expected average lifetime pension policyholders, and try to evaluate it according to various mortality indices. Since they do pension insurance plan to live longer than those who die at the same time, there is an actuarial deficit. Insurance companies have to pay the monthly pension (calculated - while joining pension plan - accumulate savings amount divided canada census your retirement expectancy canada census of those who reached retirement age), for more years.
Eric, longevity only half of the problem when it comes to pensions. The other half is the decline in birth rates and aging populations (World, but faster than in the West). Beyond pensions person secretes himself for future reference (and for most people it is not enough), government support is based on a pay as you go now that we pay allowances generations before us, assuming that future generations will pay the S
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